Good morning, this is The Smoke Eater for Friday, May 13, 2022, so here's something not spooky.
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TOP STORY
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines' open testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee earlier this week was a rather sobering reality check on the state of global affairs. Haines testified that Putin was likely preparing for a, "prolonged conflict in Ukraine."
Haines noted Putin is likely to expand his war "special operation" into neighboring Moldova, but because poorly supplied Russian soldiers are getting their asses kicked and being stretched too thin, "the next few months could see us moving along a more unpredictable and potentially escalator trajectory," Haines said.
"At the very least," Haines testified, "We believe the dichotomy will usher in a period of more ad hoc decision making in Russia.”
MORE: Margarita Konaev and Polina Beliakova have a long read in in Foreign Affairs explaining that Putin, “…is unlikely to settle for a stalemated fight with limited control beyond the already disputed parts of eastern Ukraine as the outcome of a war that promised so much more and has already cost the Russian military so dearly."
BONUS: Haines also testified that China is still eyeballing Taiwan like a terrible drunk after last-call, but Chinese President Xi Jinping hasn’t decided to pull a Putin (yet). Defense Intelligence Agency head Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier stated that he believed China didn't want to invade forcefully, but, Berrier said, "I think they would rather do this peacefully over time."
Meanwhile, U.S. military aide for Ukraine is stalled thanks to Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) who is (as usual) throwing a tantrum about sending money to Not Americans. After Biden uncoupled additional COVID relief from the proposal, the new $40 billion weapons package sailed through the House on a bipartisan 368-57 vote (yes, it was cultists in the crackpot caucus who voted against sending aid to Ukraine…again). The bill also includes a provision that makes it easier for Uncle Sam to snatch and sell toys from Russian oligarchs to offset the cost of humanitarian efforts -- though that's still a legal mess, and there's no shortage theories floating around the international brain space.
Over in Ukraine, the first war crimes trial is underway in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials accuse a 21-year-old Russian soldier of shooting a 62-year-old man in the head through an open car window. The U.N. is also expanding its inquiry into Russian war crimes in Eastern Ukraine If there's any doubt about the war crimes, check out the The Washington Post's searchable database that documents Russian atrocities through over 200 sourced videos that were shared on social media. CNN also has a very detailed report on how Russia's Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlyov is likely behind the ordering of missile strikes on civilian targets.
BELOW THE FOLD
With progressive skepticism of NATO slipping in the wake of Putin's war "special operation," Finland's leaders announced they want to join NATO "without delay." Sweden is expected to make a similar announcement in the next few days.
In response, Russian officials called this a hostile action and vowed retaliation, including "military-technical" measures, and some nuclear saber rattling. Newsweek is reporting a bit of panic buying in Finland (but nobody seems to be picking that story up, so reader beware).
MORE: As Elisabeth Braw explains in Foreign Policy, Finland has a history of slapping away crazy Russian bullshit once a century or so, and they've built a formidable military as a result.
It's worth remembering that NATO'S (not-so-) open door policy for membership does stipulate that one can't be actively shooting back at their crazy neighbor who won’t stop fucking with property lines. Putin knows these trigger mechanisms exist and he's used them in the past to stop NATO from expanding into other former Soviet satellites. The U.S. (and Joe Biden) has legitimately waffled on Ukraine's entry over the years, and France and Germany have opposed Ukraine's NATO membership while they guzzled Russian energy and tried to avoid gettng dragged into Putin's Stalinist wet dreams.
It’s not a foregone conclusion that Finland will join NATO, but it’s more likely than it was a few months ago. Anne Marie Slaughter argues in the Financial Times that nobody should be rushing to expand NATO right now, but Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö would likely disagree, yesterday saying that Finland wasn’t trying to provoke Russia, but he would tell Putin, “You caused this. Look at the mirror.”
BONUS: If you too need to lay on the floor and have a think, David Ignatius is fantasizing about Bretton Woods 2: The Borscht Boogaloo, Benn Steil wants us to start thinking about a new Marshall Plan for a new millennium, and Christopher Heusgen wants Germany to stop being so German, the U.S. to cancel Team America philosophy, and have everyone work towards a real rules-based international order.
One More Thing...
A mate I've made on the course of my travels has a contemporary take on the classic Dead Kennedy's song, "Nazi Punks Fuck Off," that he's put on shirts and hoodies. A portion of the proceeds go to Ukrainian charities.