The Smoke Eater For Feb. 3, 2020
Caucus crunch time, impeaching Joe Biden, and the SNL's Trump Weinstein.
Good morning, this is The Smoke Eater for Monday, February 3, 2020, and please, dear reader, send coffee.
Quick Hit
A bunch of stuff about the caucuses * All Hail King Donald, Ruler Of This Land, Leader Of Bleach Drinkers * The SNL cold open *
NOTE: The Smoke Eater will be short again today (and tomorrow). It's a little past 3:30 am in De Moines as I write this, and there's campaign events all day. This is a friendly reminder that the The Smoker Eater is ad-free and supported by cool people. If you want to be cool (and you know you do), tip me on Ko-Fi, or subscribe to my Patreon!
Sleep Is Overrated
The DNC has changed the qualifications for the Feb. 19 debate. The general consensus is that the rules change was made to accommodate Mike Bloomberg, the former New York mayor self-funding his own presidential run. Bloomberg's self-funding made him ineligible for the debates under the old rules, but his rapid rise in the polls sparked criticism from progressive and former candidates who'd hope to pop his multi-million dollar balloon. When asked about the rules change, Bloomberg told reporters "I have no idea, talk to [the DNC]. I didn't ask them to do it." Bloomberg's statement is counter to reporting last week that his team was already prepping him for the debates.
The rules changes comes as Democratic party diehards get nervous about the chances of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. An NBC News/WSJ poll released yesterday evening shows Sanders pulling ahead of Joe Biden.
Yesterday someone overheard former Secretary of State John Kerry talking on the phone about all the things he'd have to do to be convinced to get in the race if he decided #HesRunning. Kerry later deleted a tweet saying #the story was, "fucking (or categorically) false."
Late Friday David Siders wrote in Politico about grumblings deep in the bowels of the DNC to stop Bernie Sanders. There’s been talk of changing convention rules in the event no candidate obtains a plurality of delegates before arriving in Milwaukee this July, but it seems like everyone thought that idea as being too fucked up. Rumors of the "stop Bernie" movement triggered a spat from Sanders supporters over the weekend with members of "the squad" attacking Hillary Clinton for her recent characterization of Sanders as a grouchy nose-picker with no friends in Washington.
On the back side of all of this was The Des Moines Register nixing its "gold standard" poll after a member of former South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg's campaign complained he’d been left off the poll in at least one instance. The math geniuses over at 538 still say Biden is the favorite to win the Democratic primary, but a cursory glance at his polling average over the last six months has shown Biden slipping.
Natasha Korecki reports that the Sanders campaign will problably try and declare victory during the confusing caucusing process if they have a high enough turnout, an accusation they winked at last month after it was announced Iowa would report out the results of the first to caucusing rounds instead simply reporting the final delagte count.
BONUS: An overly caffeinated Steve Kornacki explains, the entire caucusing process (TLDR: complete shit show). No matter what the campaigns claim tonight, I'm taking the word of the AP. It’s all about them scruples, MoFos.
Who Are You People?
The Sanders team is hoping that Latino voters will be their secret weapon later tonight, even though the state's population is predominately white.
Writing for Buzzfeed, Molly Hensley takes a second look at Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg's lack of appeal among black voters. Both sit at 0 and two percent, respectively, with black voters according to a recent Washington Post poll; both have inconvenient scandals that alienate black voters; and both come from states that are mostly white. Additionally, Priscilla Thompson writes many black women who turned out to caucus for Obama in 2008 just aren't sure they'll caucus this year.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has dispatched. Rep. Ayanna Pressley to South Carolina to shore up support among black women who might otherwise swing towards a candidate like Joe Biden.
"When You're A Star, They Let You Do It."
A new poll shows 49 percent of the country thinks Trump should serve out the rest of his term, compared with 46 percent who want to throw the bum out. A majority of voters, 52 and 53 percent, respectively, think Trump pressured Ukraine to boost his chances in 2020 (AKA cheating) and obstructed congress.
Despite this, the usual parade of unnamed Trump officials say Trump is likely to use his seemingly inevitable impeachment as a an excuse to do whatever he wants. One official warns Peter Baker, "I think he will just have been given a green light and he will claim not just acquittal but vindication and he can do those things and they can’t impeach him again. I think this is going to empower him to be much bolder. I would expect to see him even more let loose."
Republican Senators are essentially shrugging their shoulders and saying that Trump might have done something wrong, but it certainly doesn't warrant impeachment, let alone hearing from witnesses. On Friday Ohio Sen. Rob Portman criticized Trump but stopped short of saying anything substantial. In a statement, Portman argued, "The Constitution does not give the Senate the power to remove the president from office and ban him from this year’s ballot simply for actions that are inappropriate." (It does.) Portman also complained calling witnesses would take too long.
Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst went on TV to put some stank on her own bullshit during a sit-down with Jake Tapper. Ernst said she too believed Trump fucked up "maybe in the wrong manner," but it wasn't that big of a fuck up. In what was likely an effort to ward off a looming Trump tweet, the embattled Ernst quickly ran to Bloomberg News and bitched, "Joe Biden should be very careful what he’s asking for because, you know, we can have a situation where if it should ever be President Biden, that immediately, people, right the day after he would be elected would be saying, ‘Well, we’re going to impeach him."
A similarly half-baked comment was farted out from Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in a convoluted Medium post. Rubio lawsplains, "Just because actions meet a standard of impeachment does not mean it is in the best interest of the country to remove a President from office."
One More Thing...
Here's the SNL cold open on the impeachment trial we thought we wanted.
OK, now here's a warm and fuzzy critter video!IT'S MARU and Hana!
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