Good morning, this is The Smoke Eater for Jan. 06, 2020 and I can't decide which is a worse way to start the new year: A sinus infection or a hangover. You can vote on Twitter.
Quick Hit
Trump starts another pissing contest, a "parliamentary coup" in Venezuela (with a special guest star), and some 2020 news.
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And Iran so far away...
A lot has already been written on Iran this weekend, and I'm not going to detract from the conflict journalists doing real reporting. Lets run through how we got here instead...
In an effort to curb Iranian nuclear ambitions, the Obama administration and former Secretary of State John Kerry conducted secret negotiations with Kerry's Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, over the course of several years. Ronan Farrow recounts in his Book, "War on Peace," that Kerry could be heard screaming at Iranian negotiators behind closed doors late in the negotiations, standing firm on key sticking points. In 2013, Iran and the P5+1 agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- known commonly as the Iranian nuclear deal -- effectively halting Iran's nuclear goals in exchange for relif from crippling economic sanctions. In May of 2018, Donald Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA and called it a "horrible one-sided deal" that "didn't bring calm, it didn't bring peace, and it never will."
The rest of the world scrambled to condemn the U.S. pull out and work with Iran in order to avert the full snap-back of sanctions. Undeterred, the Trump administration doubled-down by labeling Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a foreign terrorist organization. The rest of the world, led publicly and privately by French President Emanuel Macron, pleaded with Trump administration to back off from its increasingly hostile rhetoric and actions.
In May 2019 the the US sent a carrier strike group to the region. One month later, Iran shot down a U.S. surveillance drone in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. sanctioned Iran's Supreme Leader in response. In September 2019, a drone attack was launched on a Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco). The Trump administration and the Saudi's blamed Iran, the US deployed additional troops to Saudi Arabia, and slapped more sanctions on Iran.
All the while, Iran was increasing its nuclear enrichment capabilities despite vocal protests from the international community.
On Dec. 27, 2019, several American troops were wounded and a US contractor was killed in a rocket attack. The U.S. responded with an airstrike on bases belonging to Kataib Hezbollah, a Shiite militia, in Iraq and Syria. On Dec. 29, Iranian-backed Iraqi militiamen and protesters stormed the US embassy in Baghdad, trashing a reception area, smashed windows, and set some fires. Early Jan. 3, the US launched an airstrike against Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the head of Iran's Quds Force, a secretive branch of the IRGC.
Yesterday the Iraqi parliament voted to expel US forces. Donald Trump has since fired off mean tweets against Zarif, threatening attacks on 52 Iranian cultural sites (a war crime, if carried out), as well as "very big sanctions" on Iraq if it moves forward with the expulsion of US troops. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was forced to do a "full Ginsburg," and walk back some of Trump's rants -- which Trump then repeated to reporters while aboard Air Force One, according to Axios. Multiple news outlets are now confirming the US is deploying a "task force of special operations troops" to the Middle East that includes the 75th Army Ranger Regiment, in addition to thousands of Marines and paratroopers.
Additional Background:
Timeline of Nuclear Diplomacy with Iran via Arms Control Association
Photos of US embassy attack
Popular Front podcast on US embassy siege
NYTimes The Daily podcast: The Assassination of General Qassim Suleimani
NYTimes maps and infographics
The Washington Post has an interesting read on how Trump has been surrounded by war hawks like Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark Esper. In addition, The New York Times has some gossip about how Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have been pressing for extreme measures on Iran. The AP also has a fact-check on Mike Pence's claim that Soleimani was involved with the 9/11 attacks (SPOILER ALERT: he wasn't).
With Congress heading back to the Hill, last night House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the House would introduce and vote on a war powers resolution this week. A similar resolution was introduced in the Senate by Tim Kaine (D-VA) on Friday. Last night Trump tweeted some legally dubious statement that his tweets "serve as notification" to Congress that the US would retaliate "perhaps in a disproportionate manner" if Iran attacked the US.
Perhaps the biggest wildcard right now are conservative isolationists like Tucker Carlson and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky). On Friday night Carlson condemned the "chest-beaters" who'd spent the day grunting their way through the conservative echo chamber. A similar sentiment was echoed by Paul, who called the airstrike on Soleimani "the death of diplomacy" during an interview on Fox News. Paul has also called on Congress to issue a formal declaration of war in a tweet that criticized "feckless intermittent eruptions of violence [with] no clear mission for our soldiers."
Foreign policy nerds are warning that any Iranian retaliation will be subtle as opposed to an all-out war with the U.S. Repercussions are likely to include regional political pressures, local Shiite militia attacks, and cyber attacks. Yesterday an obscure US government website was breached by a group claiming to be acting in retaliation for the killing of Suleimani. The group, called the "Iran Cyber Security Group Hackers," simply replaced the front page with a doctored photo of Trump being punched in the face. The site was quickly taken off-line by US officials.
I personally doubt this was the work of Iranian state actors. This looks like amateur. Iran receives no benefit from shitposting graffiti on an obscure federal agency's website.
Venez-What?
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro staged what is being considered a "parliamentary coup" in a bid to rob international credibility from his rival, Juan Guaidó. Yesterday Madruo began swearing in members of the National Assembly loyal to him, and blocking opposition legislators from entering the National Assembly. There are reports Maduro has bribed supporters and politicians in Venezuela's National Assembly and jailed detractors as part carefully orchestrated bid to oust Guaidó as the head of the National Assembly. It's being called, "Operation Scorpion."
Rumors have been floating around that Guaidó had been losing international support for some time, but the U.S. and other governments are rejecting Maduro's move. The Trump administration's current stand-in for a diplomat, Elliot Abrams, is confirming Trump will increase sanctions on any person, place or thing linked to Maduro (read: oil). [Video]
In a remarkable and possibly unrelated coincidence, just before the new year the AP reported Erik Prince had been referred to the U.S. Treasury Department for possible sanctions violations. Prince reportedly took a trip to Venezuela to meet with a top aide to Maduro. The AP notes Prince's late November visit is strange as he's rumored to have been pitching his usual mercenary army schtick to U.S. officials as they publicly backed Guaidó in 2019. A reversal of support for Guaidó from Prince or the Trump administration would be ... interesting.
A lawyer for Prince says "There is nothing unlawful about simply visiting Venezuela and participating in non-business discussions, which is all Prince did."
Syria Shenanigans
Around Christmas there was a report that US troops in Syria got into some kind of fight with Russian troops. However, an investigation by Polygraph has found that this might bogus. The Russians and the U.S. are keeping both keeping quiet about the alleged incident. Polygraph adds the outlet that reported the story, U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), has a murky relationship with the truth and transparency, and there are reports US forces -- having left the area where the alleged fight happened back in October -- were engaged in patrols about 350 miles east, near the Iraqi border, at the time.
Lindsey Graham hogs the spotlight
Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) went on one of the lesser watched Sunday shows to urge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to change the Senate rules on impeachment trials if Nancy Pelosi continues to hold articles of impeachment. Graham then went on to call Colin Kaepernicka "racist," and criticize Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).
Early this Rolling Stone published a fascinating profile on Graham, and it details how he went from being a Never Trumper to a one of Trumpland's biggest stars.
The long, long, long, road to November
Democratic Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) isn't likely to make the debate next Tuesday, for better or worse. Recent polls show Booker barely registering among early primary states. As a result, Booker seems to be going all-in on Iowa as many voters remain undecided.
Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro dropped out of the 2020 race. With a rather heartbreaking video posted to his Twitter account on Jan. 2, Castro thanked his supporters, and vowed to, "keep fighting for an America where everyone counts." On Friday, Castro went on Rachel Maddow and said he ran a "bold campaign," and criticized the Democratic party for using less ethnically diverse states early in the primary process. This morning Castro announced his endorsement of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Ma). [Maddow 1 / Maddow 2]
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is staffing up his campaign with another 500 jobs in 30 states. Bloomberg has already spent over $100 million in just six weeks of announcing what most analysts see as a back-up plan to Joe Biden. Bloomberg also just moved move his campaign HQ into a bigger office space in New York's Times Square. I'll have a bigger brief on Bloomberg soon, but it's important to keep a close eye on his campaign tactics.
One more thing...
Beth Bays, of Huddleston, VA, has created a 15-foot-tall sculpture of Willie Nelson made of hay. The local News and Advocate reports Bays created the sculpture, which she calls, "Will-Hay-Nelson," for an annual contest. The famed country singer seems to have been made aware of the sculpture as he recently shared a viral video on social media.
And now, something warm and fuzzy from Aaron's Animals.
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