The Smoke Eater For Jan. 31, 2020
Iowa all over me, Brexit Day, and absolutely nothing about Trump.
Good morning, this is The Smoke Eater for Friday, January 31, 2020, and it's possible they're all sorcerers and saboteurs.
Quick Hit
* Mother Nature, tear down this wall * 2020 candidates strap on their electoral boxing gloves * Brexit Day *
NOTE: Today's issue is a little shorter than I'd like, but I wanted to make sure I got it out ASAP. I'm headed Iowa so I can try and get coverage of the caucuses.
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Building a Better Tomorrow
A recently installed section of Trump's border wall fell over during high winds. Video from a local news outlet shows the steel slated barrier leaning against trees while large gaps separate the desolate US border from the city of Mexicali, Mexico. [Video]
Census officials are warning that cyber fuckery could muddle the results of the annual population count, potentially disrupting congressional seats and federal resources.
Enter The Thunderdome
Politico reports that Iowa Democratic officials are worried they could lose their first in the nation primary status. Criticism that Iowa's Democratic electorate is unrepresentative of the Democratic party has grown steadily since 2019, but the The Washington Post has a long and detailed story about why the mythos of Iowa, why some of its residents take their politics seriously. Similarly, 538 has done an amazing job explaining how the current primary process came about in the rubble of disastrous 1968 Democratic convention. [Podcast]
The math nerds over at 538 say there's a statistical dead heat in Iowa between Biden and Sanders. Writing for The New York Times, Trip Gabriel says Biden's ground game is weaker than Sanders', and it's possible the old folks who skew towards Biden stay home on caucus night. Nate Silver writes one could bet on Sanders squeaking out a win, but they probably should put too much money down as people (especially Iowans) are fickle, and we're all going crazy right now.
The Biden campaign appears to be hedging their bets and courting independent voters in New Hampshire, David Catanese writes for McClatchy. The state's open primary creates a chance for a moderate candidate like Biden to gain ground in a state where Sanders currently holds a 2-1 lead.
Super Duper Tuesday
A new poll out of Pennsylvania shows Biden's lead slipping among registered Democrats. I should note the geeks at 538 are kind of "meh" on the pollster, but I'm mentioning it because the poll also shows Mike Bloomberg siphoning off support for Biden and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg in the Super Tuesday states that vote March 3.
On the other side of the country, leading 2020 candidates are courting traditional and non-traditional voters in California. Biden's camp is courting voters in Oakland with cardboard standees of Obama, Warren is explaining her plan(s) to the more in east LA, while Bernie's camp is giving multi-lingual socialist spiels to Latino, Filipino, and Asian Americans who don't usually vote.
Bernie's campaign is still shrugging off fears and attacks from dues-paying Democratic diehards that he'd shit the bed come November. Documents "leaked" from the Sanders camp show a President Bernie would make an end-run around an obstructionist Congress by firing off executive orders to achieve his lofty policy goals, a tactic some analysts note is remarkably similar to the Trump administration.
It Could Be Worse
Minnesota Sen. Sen. Amy Klobuchar will probably berate her staffers now that activists in her home town are calling for her to drop out of the 2020 race, Chao Xiong writes for the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The call comes following an AP investigation that raised doubts about a case against Myon Burrell, who was sentenced to life at 16 for the 2003 killing of an 11-year-old Tyesha Edwards -- a case prosecuted by Klobuchar during her time as the Hennepin County attorney.
Politico has a fascinating deep dive into the ad strategies of Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg. Where Buttigieg's people went hard on TV, Warren's team went used a targeted digital ad strategy to reach voters. Expect this old school vs. new school strategy to come up again in the next few months.
The Intercept has VERY long and nerdy story about Warren's fight for bankruptcy protections. I'm going to be honest: this is some obscure stuff for policy wonks and bean counters who enjoy drinking fancy booze while debating safeguards for small businesses in international trade agreements on Friday nights.
These Fuckin' Guys
John McAfee tells the Washington Examiner #HesRunning. McAfee, who is currently wanted by the US authorities, says he'll conduct the race remotely by sending lackeys out into the world on his behalf. He says he is "creating masks of [his] face which are going to be given to thousands of people in two different groups" so he can pop up in "parks, street corners, [and] restaurants" and rant through a loudspeaker. Additionally, McAffee's minions will wear cameras so he can interact with the world from the safety of his boat, an idea that was mocked on Arrested Development, and an episode of South Park.
Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney finally decided to quit the 2020 Democratic primary.
Meanwhile, in Not America...
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held a presser with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, Ukraine early this morning and said the US still supported Ukraine's efforts to fight the Russian-back separatist movement. When Zelensky stated that Ukraine was ready for that White House visit Trump promised, Pompeo demurred and said, "We’ll find the right time." In a related story, the Trump administration has announced it won't be cutting funding for international aid to Ukraine (yet).
Reid Standish and Robbie Gramer write in Foreign Policy how Pompeo's trip to former Soviet states comes at a time when both Russia and China exert extreme pressures throughout the Eurasian region. It should also be noted that it was only last week that Pompeo threw a tantrum during an interview with NPR reporter Mary Louise Kelly, casting doubt about the American public's interest in Ukraine's effort to fight off Russia's invasion.
US Defense Secretary Mark Esper says the Pentagon won't remove all US forces from Africa, but adds, "I would say that no decisions have been made yet, this is a process."
The US announced its moving ahead with humanitarian aid to Iran in the form of cancer and transplant treatments, the Wall Street Journal reports. US sanctions (which are partially responsible for Iran's need for international medical assistance) will remain in place.
FUN FACT: Iran has American flag factories. Reuters reports Iran's largest flag factory has has been busy since the assassination of Qassem Soleimani. Aside from American flags, they also produce British and Israeli flags so protesters can burn them. "The people of America and Israel know that we have no problem with them," says Ghasem Ghanjani, owner of the Dib Parcham flag factory, who clarifies the Iranians ire is aimed primarily at Western leaders. "If people burn the flags of these countries at different rallies, it is only to show their protest."
It's Brexit Day! Shortly before midnight local time the UK will quietly slink out of Brussels and cross the English Channel, then spend the next several years in a pub wondering where things went wrong. The most immediate changes will be apparent in the European Parliament where the UK's 73 lawmakers will Brexit their offices; the most dramatic changes won't take effect until the end of the year. Supporters are hailing this as an "independence day," seemingly oblivious to grumblings from Northern Ireland and Scotland about leaving the UK and joining the EU.
One More Thing...
Iowa election officials are butthurt reporters and geeks are making a big deal about their semi-secret election apps. Officials in the Republican and Democratic parties fear releasing too many details about their apps could help malicious assholes, and that the caucusing process itself is its own safeguard against cyber fuckery. Computer nerds counter transparency is the best defense, and central to strong democracy.
Yesterday the Washington Post reported that the DNC was so concerned about cybersecurity in Iowa that it was sending its top officials to monitor for digital attacks. Troy Price, Iowa's Democratic party chair, tells the Des Moines Register, "We take our responsibility to protect the integrity of our democratic process and secure Iowans’ votes very seriously ... [but] until Mitch McConnell decides to act on the bipartisan-passed House of Representatives election security bills sitting on his desk, cybersecurity prevention will continue to play a growing role in our elections."
A healthy dose of skepticism is never bad, especially in a world where we’re constantly instructed to say something if we see something. But when we must be skeptical of our basic democratic processes we clearly have some issues. Fortunately most of these problems have a simple solution: a well educated public.
OK, now here's a warm and fuzzy critter video! KOALAS!
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