The Smoke Eater for Jan. 7, 2020
Misadventures in the Middle East, a big bill, and fake problems.
Good morning, this is The Smoke Eater for Jan. 7 2020, and I can't believe I had to look up the dictionary definition of "assassination."
Quick Hit
Iranian’s are calling for an eye for an eye, Donald Trump puts on his ill-fitting camo-colored nightmare coat, and there’s (finally) a 21st century sex toy for women.
Gulf War 3: Rise of the Golden Gods
The world is reacting to the Trump administration's assassination of Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani. During a massive funeral procession for Soleimani in Kerman, Soleimani's hometown, a stampede broke out that left 40 people dead and 213 injured, according to the Iranian Students' News Agency (INSA) and Fars. As a result, the funeral for Soleimani has been postponed. This follows a similar mass procession in Tehran that drew over 1 million people. A colleague and I noted that crowd was larger than Trump's inauguration.
The New York Times reports Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has told his government's National Security Council that any retaliatory attack must be proportional to American interests and carried out by Iranian forces, a dramatic shift from Iran's traditional use of proxy forces. Adding insult to injury, Tansim reports Iranian lawmakers have unanimously approved a bill to designate the U.S. Department of Defense as a terrorist organization, including its subsidiaries. This on top of predictable chorus of Iranian leaders vowing revenge.
Determined to add sauce on this shit sandwich, the Trump administration has barred Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zariff from entering the U.S. Zariff was scheduled to to address the United Nations Security Council, and says he submitted his request, "a few weeks ago." This is in addition to reports that the administration has been stopping Iranian Americans from returning the U.S from Canada.
In spite of this, the rest of the world is attempting to cancel. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg declined to endorse the assassination of Soleimani, instead saying that it was a U.S. decision and urging a return to the JCPOA. Officials from France and the U.K. are also blasting the Trump administration, arguing that this only increases the likelihood of terrorist attacks in Europe.
Writing in the Times of India, Chidanand Rajghatta wonders what the U.S. assassination of Soleimani means for other hostile actors throughout the world. Rajghatta notes that Pakistani intelligence officials have a long and well established history of using terrorist groups like the Taliban and Haqqani Network to achieve their political aims, just like Soleimani used various Shiia militias.
Hoo-Whaaat?
The souring relationship between the U.S. and Iraq became more complicated after a draft memo from the US command in Baghdad was released saying the US would comply with Iraq's decision to expel U.S. forces. The memo was quickly walked back by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley, and much facepalming ensued.
After a failed attempt to stop the Iraqi's from voting to expel U.S. forces, the Trump administration now says it's drafting possible sanctions in the event Iraq gives U.S. forces the boot -- effectively sending a $1 trillion bill for all the crap built, bombed, and rebuilt, over the last 17 years.
If you need a quick civics lesson, here's a rundown on the presidential war powers. TLDR: Trump could drag the U.S. (and the world) into another pointless pissing contest, but its legality is debatable as has ever decided to drag their ass across the Constitution. The Washington Post is reporting that even if Republicans are lukewarm to the idea, they're likely to continue backing Trump.
As of September 2019 there were an estimated 45-65,000 troops stationed in 11 different countries throughout the Middle East. Unfortunately, we don't exactly know how many bases are scattered about the region as the Trump administration no longer provides information about military bases or facilities in the Middle East. Stars and Stripes estimates there's about 6,000 troops in Iraq alone. If you still want to play the numbers game, The Times has a decent breakdown of known US assets, as well as those heading to the region, and what they can expect when they get there. (Spoiler Alert: It's hot, and there's no cellphones.)
NOTE: None of these reports contain estimates about US contractors in the Middle East. Contractors generally work for private businesses. It doesn't matter if that work is in a civilian or military capacity, those businesses don't have to abide by the same transparency regulations as government agencies. A December 2018 study in Armed Forces & Society attempted to shed light on that by analyzing reports of fatalities.
"Truthiness"
Fox News may be becoming a divided house as the network's biggest prime time talking heads offered conflicting opinions to their respective audiences. Sean Hannity went on an long and curiously detailed rant about potential targets in Iran, specifically mentioning oil refineries, nuclear facilities, and mullahs (Iran's religious/political leaders). Interestingly, Hannity added that the U.S. "won’t be going with boots on the ground" because "it's not necessary." In his defense of Trump and the greenlight for the assassination of Soleimani, Hannity complained about the "media mob" that was "whining."
Just an hour before Hannity, Tucker Carlson was waving his red flag about the assassination of Soleimani by noting the intelligence agencies now being touted by the administration as justifications for the strike were the same "deep state" boogeymen the network had spent the last two years denouncing, "pledging never to trust them again without verification." Media Matters notes Carlson's isolationist rants are "carefully engineered" to appeal to the paranoid and racist, and he is urging his viewers not to be distracted from domestic problems -- like an "invasion" of immigrants at the southern border.
In a monologue taking aim the awfully familiar war drums, last night Stephen Colbert mocked the bad trip down Memory Ln. by questioning why the Trump administration was using a 40-year-old rationale as a pretext for committing war crimes while simultaneously using the same rhetoric the Bush administration did in 2003. "He’s still mad about the Iranian hostage crisis," Colbert asked. "What’s next on his 1980 agenda." [Video]
Too Much 2020, Too Little Time
Nick Coltrain reports for the Des Moines Register that 2020 Democratic primary candidates have spent $45 million on ads in Iowa, more than the entire 2016 cycle. Most of that money is being spent by billionaire Tom Steyer, who's racked up a $11.6 million dollar bill as of Dec. 18. After than comes former Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Coltrain adds that this doesn't include digital ads since businesses like YouTube, Hulu, Twitter, and Facebook aren't required to disclose that much information.
Most people won't have heard of Jamie Harrison, the charismatic Democrat from Columbia, South Carolina challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham in 2020. A poll from left-leaning Change Research last month showed Harrison two points behind Graham, 47-45, and noted that Graham's favorables remain rather low despite being a very loud cheerleader for the Trump administration. Harrison's campaign is reporting astonishing fundraising numbers that are let him start 2020 with an impressive $4.6 million war chest, about half of what Graham had in cash on hand in September. Political geeks note that South Carolina's substantial growth in urban areas has led to a rise of African American and Latino voters. Last fall, Harrison told Vox, "South Carolina is not West Virginia. It’s not Oklahoma. It’s not Kansas."
Graham, in case you skipped that Rolling Stone profile yesterday, is running to the right as fast as he can despite a legislative history as a moderate Republican. Oliver Darcy notes that Graham has appeared on Fox News 36 since September 1, 2019. When asked why Graham has become one of Fox's regular talking heads, Graham's comms director Kevin Bishop told Darcy that Fox has, "the highest ratings," and added, "Going to higher rated networks and shows are the best use of our limited time."
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has decided he won't run for the open senate seat in Kansas. The Washington Post reports that Pompeo was very nonplussed about becoming a junior senator. Considering the current state of foreign affairs, and Pompeo's suite on at the top of Mahogany Row, I can't say I'm surprised.
Today marks 302 days since the last White House press briefing and last night Anderson Cooper savaged White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham. "Who is Stephanie Grisham," Cooper asked before displaying a photo of Grisham next to photos of RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel, and former star of the show "Heart to Heart," Stephanie Powers. He then went on to say that he's questioned the harshness of his criticism of Grisham in the past, but was reminded that Grisham -- who collects a paycheck from U.S. tax payers to, in essence, avoid doing her job -- has defended the president calling the press, "human scum." [Video]
"Don't Be Evil"
Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) shared a fake image of Barack Obama with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on social media. It's hard to imagine why his family told his constituents not to vote for him in the 2018 election.
Facebook says it's going to ban deepfakes, but that policy has some rather important asterisks. It won't, for instance, block that bogus video of Nancy Pelosi that was floating around incestuous alt-right disinfo circles. According to a blog post by Monkia Bickert, Facebook's VP for global policy management, "these videos are still rare on the internet," and they can be tough to spot. Bickert is expected to appear before a House hearing this week on "manipulation and deception in the digital age."
One More Thing...
One of the hottest devices at the Computer Electronics Show (CES) this year is Lora DiCarlo's Osé massager. It's not a traditional sex toy -- it has a "come hither" motion that moves up and down with adjustable speeds -- it's being billed as a clitoral stimulator that also has a G spot stimulator. DiCarlo actually won an award for innovation by the Consumer Technology Association last year, but the award was later rescinded citing CES's rules on "immoral, obscene, indecent, profane" tech. After some more sexual frustration, the CTA walked back it's walk back and not only gave DiCarlo back her award, but it also changed its rules to allow sex tech. This year DiCarlo is showcasing two spin-off gadgets similar to the Osé that are more modestly priced. [SFW Promo Video]
OK, here's some warm fuzzies. Today's video features chimpanzees learning to climb, and comes via the BBC Earth and the Liberia Chimpanzee Rescue and Protection sanctuary.
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