The Smoke Eater for July 15, 2022
Nukes, Not America, and cheetahs
Good morning, this is The Smoke Eater for Friday, July 15, 2022, and this seemed bleak and appropriate.
NOTE:
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ABOVE THE FOLD
US President Joe Biden's trip to the Middle East has yielded the first positive news about efforts to resurrect the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, Iranian nuclear deal, etc.) in years. Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid agreed that they don't want Iran get a nuclear weapon.
During a joint presser with Lapid, Biden said, "I continue to believe that diplomacy is the best way to achieve this outcome," though Lapid was quick to say that words alone wouldn't achieve their desired outcome.
In 2018, Biden's predecessor pulled out of the landmark Obama-era deal amid much fan-fare from right-wing blowhards. Opponents of the nuclear deal assured the world that the agreement was bad a bad deal, and the US could strong-arm Iran into a deal even more favorable to the U.S.
BONUS: For a deepdrive into the JCPOA that’s as thought provoking as it is entertaining, check out “The Deal,” a podcast from Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
When their cowboy bullshit failed (again), the previous administration concocted a crackpot legal argument that the US was still technically part of an international agreement that the president very publicly announced the US was abandoning.
It too failed.
European signatories tried in vain to keep Iran adhering to the agreement, but Iran (justifiably) felt US diplomats and policy makers couldn’t be trusted and it quickly restarted its nuclear program despite international snap-back sanctions. Last month, the United Nations censured Iran for going out of its way to hide the extent of its nuclear activities from the International Atomic Energy Association.
The Biden administration has tried to restart indirect nuclear negotiations in Qatar, but the slow and frustrating pace of the on-again, off-again talks have allowed Iran to increase its nuclear enrichment to 20%.
Speaking from Tel Aviv on Wednesday, Biden called abandoning the deal, "a gigantic mistake," adding that the US would use force "as a last resort" to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
In response to Iran’s ramping up of nuclear enrichment, the Israeli's tried to hack, sabotage, assassinate and bomb Iran into submission. The Iranians responded by began hiding their nuclear scientists and building facilities underground. Befuddled Israeli officials are now trying to decide if its even worth it to keep bludgeoning the Iranian nuclear program via cyber attacks and assassination attempts as local media reports stories (with zero sourcing!) that Iran has enriched enough uranium for a bomb.
On Tuesday, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna warned that Iran was weeks from approaching the threshold of being a nuclear-armed state. Colonna went on to accuse accuse the Iranians of stalling and reneging on positions during negotiations.
NOTE: Iran has repeatedly been "days" and "weeks" away from having enough uranium to make a bomb, and there’s been numerous reports about Iranian officials making ridiculous demands during the new talks. The main point here is that nuclear weapons are bad, and the "Daisy" ad should stay in the 1960s. Nobody in the 21st Century should feel it necessary to have a nuclear attack plan -- we can do better.
BELOW THE FOLD
Italian Premier Minister Mario Draghi offered to resign yesterday, but Italy's President President Sergio Mattarella refused to Draghi's resignation. The whole thing stems from the populist and far-right 5-Star party's refusal to back a cost of living bill that contained a provision on operating an incinerator near Rome -- which has been choked with a serious trash problem for years -- for environmental reasons. Ultimately this triggered a confidence vote that Draghi survived, but the increasingly unpopular 5 Star party refused to support Draghi, a move Draghi interpreted as a lack of support for his coalition government. Even if Draghi decides to form a new coalition without 5 Star, Italy's trash problems are now threatening to spill out into the greater Eurozone and strain support for Ukraine.
French President Emanuel Macron used his Bastille Day speech to say France should prepare for a future without Russian gas, saying, “Russia is using energy, like it is using food, as a weapon of war.” Macron warned the war in Ukraine had no end in sight. Macron said his government would release a "sobriety plan" to help conserve energy starting with public lights, and it would continue to seek new alternative and renewable sources of energy.
BONUS: France is in the middle of a withdraw from Africa's Sahal region. French forces have been fighting militant religious nuts, and French officials are now meeting with allied governments in an effort to keep them from collapsing like Afghanistan.
Russian propagandist, Vladimir Solovyov, has been going on state TV complaining about HIMARS after Ukraine began targeting Russian ammunition facilities. That a big bullshit artist is going on prime time to bitch about weaknesses in the Russian military stands in contrast to his usual finger pointing and nuclear saber rattling.
One More Thing...
Every week there's a ton of stories that don't make it into The Smoke Eater. I can't cover everything, and I'm constantly writing right up to a the last minute, but I'd really appreciate your feedback.
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Let me know your thoughts!
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