The Smoke Eater for June 27, 2022
A gathering, a gut-check and a joey
Good morning, this is The Smoke Eater for Monday, June 27, 2022, and it's too hot.
NOTE:
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Let’s All Get Together
Leaders from the US, Germany, the UK, France, Italy, and Japan are gathering in the German alps for the 48th G7 meeting.
The meeting is expected to yield some pretty significant modifiers to global policy, including price caps on Russian oil; more sanctions; an effort to counter China's shady infrastructure investments in developing nations; and more support for Ukraine in the form of $7.5 billion in financial aid, ammo and new advanced offensive and defensive weapon systems.
On the eve of the meeting, Russia bombed an apartment building and a kindergarten in Kyiv (again), killing one person and at least six others, including women and children. Over the weekend, Ukraine began pulling forces out of the eastern city of Severodonetsk. This morning, officials are urging remaining civilians to pull out of the city of Lysychansk as Russia moves to control all of the Luhansk region.
MORE: Ukraine was granted candidate status to the EU last week while talks to admit Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia remain stalled because of veto from Bulgaria. In a related story, Bulgaria’s government just collapsed.
BELOW THE FOLD
The G7 meeting comes as the rest of the world looks at Uncle Sam like a naked schizophrenic waving around a gun and Bible; shouting gibberish and repeatedly slamming his blood soaked head into a wall while strapped into a rusty, petrol-powered Walmart wheelchair covered in piss and pharmaceutical stickers.
It's not just the US that's struggling with extreme domestic political agendas. French parliamentary elections saw major gains by the far-right Nationally Rally led by Marine Le Pen, and a coalition of leftist parties - the New Ecological and Social People's Union (NUPES), led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon - denied French President Emanuel Macron's ability to strut around the world stage like the cock of the walk. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is attempting to keep a stiff upper lip even though he just barely survived a no-confidence vote from his own conservative Tory party following the still unfolding Partygate scandal, and unrelated sex scandals involving Tory members of parliament are causing more electoral shortfalls and resignations. Germany, for all its green energy aims, is so desperate to secure its energy needs that it's restarting coal plants, reconsidering nuclear power, and other options that are putting the political left in an existential bind.
The sudden surge of movement all over the world saw trigger happy oil producers, like Russia and Saudi Arabia, reaping huge profits because production was still low thanks to COVID policies. Countries like China and India are racing to buy Russian gas, no matter how much blood is in it. Western sanctions on Russian oil and their struggle to enact sustainable energy initiatives are only exacerbating the problem.
Leaders of the G7 are hoping that the price caps will help slow the rattletrap Russian war machine that's running largely on crude oil, a looming debt crisis, and Ukraine’s lack of arms. Without going into any actual detail about how price caps would work in reality, a senior US official told reporters, "The goal here is to starve Russia, starve Putin of his main source of cash and force down the price of Russian oil to help blunt the impact of Putin's war at the pump."
Contrary to the growing number of neo-nationalist Republican talking heads spewing Russian talking points verbatim, not all the weapon systems the US is sending Ukraine are freebies. Some of it is part of a a lend-lease program that runs through FY 2023, and so far the vast majority of the things being sent have been old Soviet-era weapons. This rhetoric obscures the global effort to keep Ukraine's economy running, and the fact that Ukrainians have to crowdfund for gear, weapons, and medical supplies.
BONUS: Whether the world is teetering on the brink of an oil war is debatable. Emily Meierding has a piece in Lawfare examining the history of resource wars, and notes that they're exceptionally rare. She recently published a book, "The Oil Wars Myth," that goes into more detail. [Podcast]
One More Thing...
Apologies if today is a bit scatter-brained, and for not cobbling together a newsletter last Friday. Sometimes I'm limited by time, sometimes it's WiFi access. Without going into all the details, I'm running up against visa and financial deadlines as I race around the continent chasing leads before I'm forced to head back stateside. Right now I'm back in Berlin after 11 hours on trains (without air conditioning in 90°F) from Krakow. If I can get the logistics to work, there are some aid groups I'll follow in and out of Liviv and/or Kyiv within the next few weeks.
OK, here's your cute critter video!
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