Good day, this is The Smoke Eater for Wednesday, March 11, 2020, and y’all sing it with me now...
Quick Hit
* Turkey's Patriot problem * Putin 4 Life, yo * Saudi Arabia kneecaps Mother Russia * A real Syrian shitshow * A big, fat joke in Afghanistan *
NOTE: Today is one of those days where we're going look at the things everyone else is ignoring. Also, today is short because the governor of Illinois says Chicago is about to become a snot-pocalypse, and I want to get some photos as Hell sneezes over. As usual, The Smoker Eater is mobile friendly, ad-free and supported by super awesome readers. If you want to be super awesome, tip me on Ko-Fi, or subscribe to my Patreon!
The Russo-Turkish War 2.0
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still mad that the US won't give him Patriot missiles to aid in his quest to cleanse Northern Syria. Turkey has been at odds with its NATO allies after it purchased Russian S-400 missile systems -- a move made in response to US sanctions. The US appears to to be softening its stance, according to Reuters, with an anonymous official saying the US could still send Turkey the Patriots and some F-35s provided the S-400s stay mint in box. Some foreign policy nerds argue that Turkey is making such a shit sandwich in Syria that we should simply ignore Turkey's "journalistic ass-kissers" (an oxymoron), while others argue that only Team America can police the world.
Russia's lower house of parliament, the Duma, has backed a move by Russian President Vladimir Putin that could allow him to potentially stay in office through 2036. Veteran Kremlin watchers note that Putin's various efforts to consolidate power into a Soviet-style politiebureau leave him in a unique position to head the country until his death, either publicly as president, or from the shadows as a retiree. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Stephen Sestanovich argues that Putin's inevitable successor is likely to face backlash from the siloviki (TLDR: Russia's deep state) as the death of a Russian leader tends to produce a comedy of errors.
Putin's deft move to consolidate power comes at a particularly tumultuous time for Russia. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia made a ballsy move to kneepcap Russia's energy industry by flooding oil markets with cheap crude during the COVID-19 crisis; ultimately causing Monday's market nose dive, a price war, and many soiled underpants on Wall Street. To prove that they weren't fucking around, the Saudis revealed plans to continue dumping oil into the market over night, Russia quickly followed suit, and the stock market sank again. Jason Bordoff writes in Foreign Policy that "Russia and Saudi Arabia are now engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken," and that this could lead to disastrous consequences, particularly for the U.S. where oil producing states could feel pinched in an election year (a potential benefit for incumbents).
Underpinning all of this is Syria. Russia is busy propping up Syrian President Bashar Al Assasd; drawing considerable ire from the international community for repeatedly bombing civilians they accidentally ID as terrorists. After Turkey went shithouse with its new drones last week, a ceasefire was declared between Russia and Turkey in the anti-Assad city of Idlib. On Monday Erdogan claimed that Donald Trump had told him the US was withdrawing troops and financial support from the fight, effectively ceding reconstruction efforts to Turkey. The Middle East Eye reports Turkey intends to rebuild Syria with oil profits.
Nothing Rhymes With Afghanistan
Afghanistan is already descending into predictable chaos and US forces have barely begun to tactically reposition themselves out of the fucking country. On Monday, the AP reported an unnamed US official saying the troop withdraws had already begun. Al Jazeera reports that there's been around 80 attacks since the signing of the peace agreement between the US and Taliban that hinged on the Taliban not blowing stuff up.
The New York Times Editorial Board has penned an op-ed (that was almost as bitchy as mine) complaining about the agreement. The Editorial Board argues the secret criteria for which the US will judge whether or not the Taliban is violating the agreement amounts to a fugazi. Even though the agreement is absurdly vague and the Taliban has pretty much used it for toilet paper, yesterday the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a US resolution to recognize it.
Recent Afghan elections remain so contested that rival leaders both declared victory and held their own dueling inaugurations. Yesterday the (current? presumed?) President of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, ordered the release of 1,500 Taliban prisoners, as per the agreement, though last week Ghani said his government hadn't been included in any agreements with the US and the Taliban; declaring he wouldn't release any prisoners as a precondition for negotiations with the Taliban. The Taliban say this gesture isn't good enough, and are demanding the release of all 5,000 prisoners before sitting down with the Afghans.
Adding to the fun, Task and Purpose reports U.S. Central Command chief Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie testified before the House Armed Services Committee that the the US has already provided "very limited support" to the Taliban in the fight against ISIS. A CENTCOM spox said General McKenzie's statement should "stand on its own," when asked to elaborate. Task and Purpose thinks this “very limited support” could mean uncoordinated air strikes.
One More Thing...
A couple in Louisiana has been arrested for stealing $1,000 worth of beer. Local police arrested the pair after they attempted to steal a bunch of other random crap, including a drill one suspect attempted to smuggle in his pants while his partner tried to run a classic grift. The thefts do not appear to be related to COVID-19.
OK, now here's a warm and fuzzy critter video: IT'S LULU!
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