The Smoke Eater For March 2, 2020
The Smoke Eater For March 2, 2020
Peace in our time, reaping what you sow, a crypto grifter gets slapped.
Good morning, this is The Smoke Eater for Monday, March 2, 2020, and remember not to fear the reaper.
Quick Hit
* A little peace (of mind) in Afghanistan * You'll never guess who's actually paying for Trump's wall * A con artist gets slapped *
NOTE: From time to time The Smoke Eater will focus on stories that aren't getting enough attention. I know I haven't been as regular with updates as I have in the past, and I ask that you bear with me while I continue dealing with personal health issues. Top-tier Patreon subscribers will be getting a special gift a little later today as a reward for dealing with me over the last three months. And for the rest of you...
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Don't Call It A Come Back
"The Trump administration signed a peace agreement with the Taliban," would be a great headline, but that's not what journalists are reporting. On Saturday the administration inked an agreement with Taliban leaders that could see all 13,000 US forces in Afghanistan leave the country in 14 months provided the Taliban stops engaging in terrorist attacks. During remarks in Kabul, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said of the agreement, "Even as we draw down our forces, our train, advise, and assist efforts will continue, and we will not hesitate to strike terrorist threats throughout the country as they emerge."
A number of foreign policy nerds are rolling their eyes at the agreement as it requires the Afghan government to play nice with religious extremists who throw explosive tantrums whenever they don't get their way. Yesterday, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani signaled his unwillingness to follow some terms of the agreement, telling Fareed Zakaria that the Afghans had made "no commitment" on the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners -- a real sticking point for the Taliban -- adding, "It’s a sovereign Afghan decision. We will discuss the question of prisoners as part of a peace deal which has to be comprehensive ... The people of Afghanistan need to believe that we have gone from war to peace and not that the agreement will be a Trojan horse."
If all goes according to plan, the US would initially bring troop levels down to where they were at the end of the Obama administration, and move to get the Taliban removed from sanctions lists starting in May. The Afghan government and the Taliban would have to play nice with each other as the Taliban seeks a greater role in the future of Afghanistan. The Taliban, in addition to not blowing shit up or helping other terror groups blow shit up, would have to give women rights and maintain communications between the US and Afghans.
Veteran foreign policy nerds aren't holding their breath.They argue the agreement looks like the administration rolled over for the Taliban just so Trump can claim he ended "forever wars." With no concrete agreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban for establishing talks on a cease fire or the Taliban's role in a future government, skeptics question the lack of any independent monitor(s) from the greater international community (let alone whether the Taliban can even be trusted).
Crack are already starting to show in the agreement. Loud conservative talking heads claim this is some hippy bullshit that stomps on the graves and artificial limbs of US soldiers, and negates the entire justification for the war in Afghanistan (which was freedom). Additionally, this morning Al Jazera reported an explosion on a futball pitch killing 11. Though nobody has claimed responsibility for the attack, it comes shortly after the Taliban announced it was ending its commitment to the "reduction in violence" that preceded the deal with the US.
Carter Malkasian writes in Foreign Affairs that it's possible a peace agreement works out if all sides have to are willing to engage in the messy process of sausage making. And it's important to note that a more robust peace agreement with the Taliban had been proposed during the Obama administration, but it went no where because the US doesn't negotiate with terrorists. Instead we spent a trillion dollars and over 2,000 lives fucking off up in the a mountains picking fights with goat herders, opium farmers and religious whackos.
Graphic via Forbes and Statista
Don't Fear The Reaper
Defense secretary Mark Esper was chewed out by members of the House Armed Services Committee last week over the administration's insistence that military pay for Trump's border wall. One of the systems the administration wants to gut to fund the wall is the Air Force's MQ-9 Reaper, one of the most familiar military drones in service. The sudden 180° shift to stop Air Force from buying more MQ-9s comes less than two years after an order for another 100 MQ-9s by 2023, and defense nerds are shook.
The new Air Force Secretary, Barbara Barrett, seemed to allude to the cuts when she babbled to Defense News's Valarie Insinna, "To some extent [in the budget], we’re trading short term titanium for long term electrons. We still need titanium, but it’s also about electrons. That’s a transformation of mindset. We’ve got to modernize. It’s cyber and it’s space but it’s still air-breathing air and it’s still soldiers on the ground and sailors and submariners. Modernizing is all about being connected, being able to have instant access to usable information." Barret is set to appear before the Senate Armed Services Committee tomorrow, so look forward to more vague jargon about the Pentagon paying for Trump's wall.
NOTE: A lot of the reapportioned money that isn't been diverted to Trump's wall is being used to stand up the Space Force, cyber warfare and networking operations, and new missile technologies. Uncle Sam will continue fiddling with the MQ-9 in some capacity, but even the Army is putting fear into the Reaper program. The MQ-9 is now about 20 years old, and was known to be rather accident prone. Additionally, the MQ-9 comes from a time where state and non-state actors weren't developing and deploying their own 31 flavors of armed and unarmed drones. And heaven forbid that any of this money should be diverted to care for drone operators who are suffering from PTSD.
BONUS: A slew of military leaders are headed to the Hill to try and explain the administration's 2021 budget request this week. Some of the hearings I'm keeping my eye on those that involve Navy shipbuilding, military housing, and USAID funding. All three are facing (more) cuts that could dramatically impact the 2020 election.
One More Thing...
Honorary Russian grifter Steven Segal has been slapped by the SEC for failing to fess up that he'd been paid to hype a crypto currency company. In a statement, Kristina Littman, Chief of the SEC Enforcement Division's Cyber Unit, said, "Celebrities are not allowed to use their social media influence to tout securities without appropriately disclosing their compensation." Segal has agreed to pay back $157,000 (which is about what he was actually paid, according to multiple reports) as well as $16,000 in interest, and a $157,000 fine. Segal, an D-list actor who in 2011 drove a tank through a persons home to arrest a suspected cockfighter while pretending to be a cop in a reality TV show, has not admitted any wrongdoing.
OK, now here's a warm and fuzzy critter video: Kitties in boxes!
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