Good morning, this is The Smoke Eater for Sunday, May 2, 2021, and that's no way to go.
Quick Hit
* It's not a retreat, it's a tactical withdraw * General, So? * The French Nazi party *
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Aside from death and taxes, the one constant that almost everyone can agree on is that Afghanistan is a bloody mess.
Earlier this week the White House confirmed the U.S. had begun to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. White House deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre echoed previous statements from U.S. defense officials saying that the U.S. would defend itself and its partners in the event of an attack as U.S. and NATO forces exit the country.
In April, President Biden announced the withdraw of U.S. and NATO forces by Sept. 11, saying, "We delivered justice to bin Laden a decade ago," Biden said in a speech. "And we’ve stayed in Afghanistan for a decade since. Since then, our reasons for remaining in Afghanistan are becoming increasingly unclear, even as the terrorist threat that we went to fight evolved."
FUN FACT: Today marks the anniversary of Operation Neptune Spear, the raid on Bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.
Biden's withdraw announcement came as the Trump administration's pugnacious peace talks between Afghan and Taliban officials floundered ahead of a May 1 withdraw deadline. The Taliban had all but shattered non-aggression terms in 1 2019 agreement reached with Trump officials by launching increasingly violent attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians. Some foreign policy experts had held out hope the Taliban would agree to another temporary ceasefire as a condition for a U.S. withdraw even as the Taliban issued public threats.
US defense officials had privately told Biden he needed to make a decision about the May 1 deadline as it began the process of resuming peace talks. Defense and intelligence officials publicly warned a withdraw from Afghanistan could complicate U.S. efforts to stabilize the region. U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly cautioned that extremist groups could overrun the U.S.-backed Afghan government within two to three years. CENTCOM commander Marine Gen. Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie recently told Congress that it would be "extremely difficult" to combat extremist groups, "but it will not be impossible."
Hard-right conservatives in the U.S. don’t want U.S. boots on the ground any more than progressives on the far-left. Both profess opinions that are deeply focused on domestic affairs, not foreign policy. Neither group feels the U.S. should be engaged in "nation building" or "colonialism," and both are quick point to easily televised failures while ignoring the slow and modest successes that are often buried in nuanced, jargon-filled reports.
Though the U.S. is likely to keep a diplomatic presence, there are people who still want the U.S. to remain in some military capacity. Members of the Afghan government fear reprisals from the Taliban or other militant groups without the protection of US and NATO forces, (though many would argue this fear should also take into account the well documented corruption of Afghan officials, and the coalition's tolerance of U.S. dollars funding tribal disputes and illicit activities).
People who grew up under the Taliban's rule during the 1990s remember when the religious fundamentalists banned many aspects of Western culture, from clothing to TV. The last time the Afghan government fell and the Taliban took over, photographer Scott Neuman was surprised to see checkpoints decorated in the magnetic tape of musical cassettes, streaming and gleaming in the arid winds, trophies of conquest over Westerners. Women, many of whom have lived their lives under the protection of the coalition forces, are worried a return to unchecked Salafist nationalism could eradicate two decades of progressive social reforms that paved the way for girls to attend school, drive, for women fall in love, or run their own businesses, and even walk around without a male escort. The Taliban have said they'd allow social reforms to continue, but many Afghani women are skeptical; they point to vague language in Taliban statements that say women will guaranteed rights, "provided under Islamic law."
The rights of women might not matter much in remote mountainous villages, but it does in Kabul. In 2014, Kabul was the fastest growing city in the world, and today it has over four million people (more than Chicago and Los Angeles). Many of those residents already live in extreme poverty. It's entirely possible that the collapse of the current Afghan government could trigger another civil war, and another wave of refugees fleeing economic collapse and political oppression. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton echoed some of those concerns about a withdraw on Fareed Zakaria's CNN show this morning.
But in Zakaria's Washington Post column this week, he makes the point that politically-motivated militant religious nuts (often erroneously considered exclusive to Islam) have been on the decline all over the world. Instead, most incidents of terrorism are being carried out by what security experts calls "lone-wolfs" (or a "crazy asshole" in layman's terms). "Alienated individuals, radicalizing online, find ideologies that weaponize their fears and furies," Zakaria writes. "America has many more alienated White men these days than Muslims, hence the changing composition of the terrorism on its soil."
Most foreign policy geeks and journalists who've spent the last 20 years hemming and hawing about body counts and women’s rights have all but abandoned the Arab world and moved to the (looming) cold war with China. The murmurs of a return to great power competitions have crept out from the Pentagon's basement to soap box speeches from wackos, presidents, and wacko presidents. Michelle Flournoy, once the policy wonks choice for defense secretary, has an essay in Foreign Affairs where she lays how the U.S. simply isn't ready prepared for a kinetic war with near-peer adversaries who are about as eager for a fight as we are because — just as Biden stated in his speech — the U.S. and NATO have been under the thumb of brass in the Pentagon that would rather stick to tactics and toys they know, even if it means getting mired in the Middle East with no clear purpose.
The U.S. is already posturing against Russia and China as all three seek to gain leverage even though neither is in much of a position to do anything. The U.S. military is outdated, exhausted, and over-extended, the aging Russian military's only strength is its ability to shill internet bullshit and sell rusted Soviet weapons, and the CCP lives in perpetual fear of total economic and societal implosion -- but they all keep beating their chests and grunting into the ether.
One More Thing...
French President Emanuel Macron is preparing for a rematch with Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French far-right. Despite Macron's attempts to run to the right in the hope of picking off Le Pen's moderates, recent polling shows the gap between the two narrowing. Since her 2017 electoral defeat, Le Pen has been attempting to bring the historically anti-Semitic and xenophobic elements of her party -- positions her father popularized -- into the mainstream, Ania Nussbaum reports for Bloomberg. Recently, about 1,000 current and former French military members signed a letter warning about a "civil war," blaming civil unrest and social problems on Islamic and impoverished refugees. Le Pen has announced support for the letter, asking the military to join her in "the battle of France." French officials have condemned the letter, announcing signatories will face punishment, and adding, "Two immutable principles guide the action of members of the military with regard to politics: neutrality and loyalty."
OK, here's a cute critter video: It's Prince Michael and Friends!
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