Good evening, this is The Smoke Eater for Friday, May 22, 2020 and I got a gig in Vegas.
Photo by Dominic Gwinn
Quick Hit
* Nuke-u-lar isn't a word, stop trying to make it a word! *
NOTE: I want to help a friend boost an after school program she volunteers for. The Young Entrepreneurs Academy (YEA!) is a 501(c)3 in Chicago that helps girls in middle and high school learn how to start and run small businesses and non-profits. My friend, Rosanna, runs an artisanal ice business in Chicago and has volunteered as a mentor with YEA! for two years now. She tells me the program teaches girls basic finance, public speaking, presentation skills, how to perform market research, and pairs them with other small business owners who volunteer around the city. When I asked her about it, she told me, "It is the coolest thing to see a young woman learn about the rules of business, understand the rules of business, and then say, 'Why do they do it this way? I'm going to do something different.'" Many of the girls need financial assistance in order to enroll in the program, so if you've got a couple of extra bucks, donate to YEA!
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"Super Duper" Missiles
Yesterday the administration announced it will pull the U.S. out of the Open Skies Treaty. The landmark 1992 arms control treaty allows signatories to fly recon flights over each other's territory to reassure themselves that nobody's in the middle of a curious military build-up. The administration, according to the New York Times, says this a method of creating leverage over growing Russian and Chinese military aggression, adding that Russia has repeatedly violated the agreement.
NATO is worried this could prompt Russia to bail out of Open Skies too, further weakening Europe's ability to discourage Russian-backed "rebels," like those who've moved into Kaliningrad, eastern Ukraine, and northern Georgia. NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg released a statement saying NATO would spend the next six months trying to increase the peace and erase the hate with the hope of keeping the treaty's biggest players around.
The Financial Times reports Russia is unlikely to sign any new agreement with the U.S. In typical two-faced fashion, Russia's deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, says the withdraw, "will come as yet another blow to the system of military security in Europe," and, "harm the interests of the US allies." Then, as if declaring an early Festivus, the Russian Foreign Ministry posted a long list of grievances on social media.
The idea for Open Skies dates back to the Eisenhower administration. Ike argued that the Soviet Union had "a fetish of secrecy and concealment," and the only way to prevent an accidental war was to let adversaries keep an eye on one another. "Open societies in the day of present weapons are the only answer," Eisenhower said in 1960, five years after initially proposing Open Skies to Soviet General Secretary Nikita Khrushchev. Though Khrushchev rejected the idea, Ike encouraged U.S. allies to join up by presenting aerial photos of the North Island Naval Air Station in San Diego. A few decades later, the Bush 41 administration rekindled Open Skies, and 27 nations signed on. The list has grown to include 34 nations, with over 1,500 flights after it went into effect in 2002.
Over the last decade or so, the Russian government has tested the limits of just about every arms treaty, including Open Skies. They've blocked the U.S. from flying over Russian military exercises, areas with Russian-backed "rebels," and flown surveillance flights over major U.S. cities that have rattled DOD officials. They even flew one over (*gasp*) a Trump golf course. Security geeks say this was more than likely part of plan to scope out weaknesses, potentially as part of a cyber attack.
In a statement, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claims new technology has allowed Russia to effectively weaponize the treaty in order to target "precision-guided conventional munitions" at the U.S. and Europe. "We understand that many of our Allies and partners in Europe still find value in the Treaty," Pompeo says, "If not for the value they place on the OST, we would likely have exited long ago."
The administration's announcement isn't a surprise, nor is it alone in its criticism of Open Skies. Like a high school quarterback on prom night, the administration has bragged about pulling out for about a year. Some of the trigger happy members of Congress have previously called Open Skies, "out of date," and complained that the U.S. should pack it's cameras and leave. The Wall Street Journal's editorial board has praised the decision, calling the treaty, "a product of the post-Cold War era of good international feeling," noting that withdrawing saves the U.S. (only) $250 million.
FUN FACT: That's roughly 40 one-hour fly-overs from the Blue Angels.
Photo by Dominic Gwinn
House Democrats have warned the administration not to pull out. Rep. Adam Smith, chair of the House Armed Services Committee, called it a "slap in the face to our allies in Europe," adding, "This decision weakens our national security interests, isolates the United States since the Treaty will continue without us, and abandons a useful tool to hold Russia accountable."
Democrats and legal eagles note the administration can't just pull out of a treaty without notifying Congress. The fiscal 2020 National Defense Authorization Act -- which Trump signed -- requires a 120 days' notice. The language was added after Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (AKA: the Iran nuclear deal), and the Reagan-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). Coincidentally, the talking points the administration has used to justify leaving Open Skies is remarkably similar to those it used when leaving the INF and the JCPOA.
Defense geeks and foreign policy nerds argue it's probably better to stay in Open Skies than bail out. Per the treaty, all signatories share information gained from the flyovers with one another, and whomever is being surveilled can kill the cameras instantly. Not every signatory can afford a high-res satellite, but can still fly an eye in the sky that looks for shady business.
All this is small, albeit guarded, potatoes compared to the New START Treaty. Since 2011, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty dramatically limits the nuclear weapons of the U.S. and Russia, and it's set to expire on Feb. 5, 2021 unless both the U.S. and Russian president's agree to extend the treaty for another five years.
The administration says it's pulling out of Open Skies as a way to drag China into a three-way arms agreement with Russia, however the both Russia and China have been trying to rapidly beef up their military capabilities. Trump has has repeatedly shitposted and complained about limits on the size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. In the their 2021 budget request the administration quietly asked for billions to develop new nuclear capabilities. Earlier this week Trump referred to some of these weapons as "super duper" missiles.
NOTE: Regardless of the debates about modernizing the U.S. nuclear arsenal, let alone simply maintaining it, nuclear weapons are really fucking expensive (to put it mildly). They're also a handy deterrent to rouge state actors, and nightmare fuel for people who enjoy clean underwear.
China has resisted any effort at arms control as it rapidly builds up its military presence. Like the Soviet Union, the Chinese don't like talking about their nuclear program -- but the editor of the state-run Global Times seems to have spilled some nuclear beans in calling on China to increase its nuclear warheads to, "1,000 in a relatively short time." Russian President Vladimir Putin has boasted about increasing Russia's nuclear capability.
As The Economist notes, one of the biggest incentives for China to sign on to New START (or a similar arms control treaty) would be to keep on eye on the U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles, as well as avoid a needless and expensive arms race. Gregory Kulacki proposes four potential steps to get China to a negotiating table in Defense One, but it's unlikely anyone will listen. Since Russia, China, and Trump all boast about the size of the rockets in their pockets, an arms agreement would certainly be surprising. However, seeing as how Trump's trade war with China has ended in an abysmal failure, the administration insists on blaming China for the novel coronavirus, and Russia is meddling in every democracy it can, any diplomatic effort welcomed change to the status quo.
One More Thing...
"Six String Samurai" is a low-budget sci-fi film set in a post-apocalyptic alternate history where Soviet Union nukes the U.S. in 1957. Forty years later, only thing that binds together the survivors, gangs, cannibals, and irradiated monsters roaming the desert wastes is rock and roll. With the passing of King Elvis in Lost Vegas, every rock-and-roller in the wastes is trekking their way to Vegas with the hope of becoming the new King, including Death himself. This film is a love letter to pop-culture and rock history with homages to Guns and Roses, Jerry Lee Lewis, Buddy Holly, spaghetti westerns, Akira Kurosawa films, the "Wizard of Oz," Bob Ray's "Rock Opera" the "Fallout" video game series, and features music The Red Elvises. (via Youtube)
OK, here's a cute critter video: BABY BUNNIES!
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