The Smoke Eater for Monday, Sept. 26, 2022
Mobilizations, miscalculations, and otters.
Good evening, this is The Smoke Eater for Monday, Sept. 26, and you can get anything you want at Alice's restaurant.
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ABOVE THE FOLD
On Sept. 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "partial mobilization” of Russian citizens, effectively a military draft. Initial reports stated that this could raise as many as 300,000 soldiers, but over the last several days additional reporting shows Russia plans to conscript as many as 1.2 million.
In a speech, Putin claimed,"only military reservists, primarily those who served in the armed forces and have specific military occupational specialties and corresponding experience, will be called up."
Putin justified his mobilization by claiming other nations were attempting to Balkanize Russia, adding their forces were stretched thin along 1,000km and facing, "the entire military machine of the collective West." He said western powers were encouraging, "nuclear blackmail," and claimed Ukraine was attempting to develop a nuclear weapon. Putin concluded his address by threatening to defend Russian sovereignty with nuclear weapons.
FUN FACT: Earlier today, The US State Department announced the extension of a landmark 1993 non-proliferation agreement with Ukraine.
Putin's draft order specifically excludes people with white collar jobs. IT professionals, bankers, and employees of state-run media outlets are exempt, according to the order, because they're "systemically-important."
"Employees who are engaged in critical areas will remain in their positions so the financial system can continue to work smoothly, people can receive their salaries, pensions and social benefits on time, card payments and transfers work and new loans can be issued." - Russian Central Bank
People with these jobs mostly live in major cities, like Moscow and St. Petersburg. This makes the most likely draftees poor and lower class, living in rural regions of eastern Russia, like Siberia. The calculus is that they may be more sympathetic to Kremlin propaganda, or at least less likely to jeopardize existing power structures.
Just days before Putin's mobilization order was announced, Russia's lower parliament, the State Duma, unanimously approved legislation that increased penalties for crimes committed "during mobilization or martial law, in wartime."
The accused could face up to a 10 year prison sentences, including reservists and conscripts who try to dodge the draft, and anyone accused of "voluntary surrender." The act of "looting" is punishable up to 15 years, and refusing to follow an order from a superior asshole is punishable with up to three years of imprisonment.
Leading up to the draft, Russian state media were admitting the war was not going well. State media has been pushing the narrative that their heavy loses are the result of NATO forces, not Ukrainian.
The mobilization has so far disproportionately affected people in remote regions of Russia, particularly among ethnic minority populations. The Free Buryatia Foundation, and advocacy group for ethnic Siberian Buryats, says ethnic minorities in the far east are being targeted for "cannon meat." In Dagestan, hundreds of mostly women and girls openly protested, chanting, "No to war," and, "Our children are not fertilizer," until the national guard was called in to help police beat and arrest people. In Russian-occupied Crimea, the historically anti-Russian Muslim Crimean Tartars say they're similarly being targeted, receiving around 90% percent of draft orders -- a move that caused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to say that this was part of a, "conscious effort to destroy the Crimean Tartar nation."
NOTE: The phrase "cannon meat" likely refers to reports of Russian commanders sending swarms of people at hidden artillery positions. The idea is simple: a human meat wave forces the entrenched force to open fire, exposing their position. Because infantry are often seen as expendable assets, it's not uncommon for them to be caught in the blast radius of their own artillery. Similar tactics have been reportedly been used in the clearing of mine fields.
Since July, there have been reports of Russian soldiers getting as little as five days of training. According to the mobilization order, draftees will only get two weeks of training. Because Russia is heavily reliant upon conscription, there are potentially two million men eligible for the draft due to their prior service.
"After all the medical check-ups, they asked me if I was ready to go to the military base the day after tomorrow. They trained us for five days, we waited for another five days for a force rotation and then we went to [combat] positions.” - "Ivan," (31) speaking to the independent Moscow Times
BONUS: Prior to the mobilization order, the average Russian soldier received one-to-two months of basic training, three-to-six months of advanced training and carried $4,000 in equipment. The average Chinese soldier receives around 10 weeks of training and comes with a $1,500 kit. The average US soldier takes about 10-12 weeks to complete Basic Combat Training (BCT, or "Basic"), then another 4-52 weeks of Advanced Individual Training (AIT). They’ll carry a $17,500 kit, with the average cost per soldier around $100,000 (per year).
BELOW THE FOLD
Putin's mobilization is nothing short of a clusterfuck.
There are reports of protests in major cities where public dissent is rare due to a fear of being beaten and imprisoned. People are openly discussing draft dodging strategies on social media and sharing tips on how to surrender. Zelenskyy has asked Russian conscripts to sabotage the war effort from within.
In his Feb. 24 speech announcing the war, Putin claimed his goal was to "liberate the Donbas," saying he was being forced to prevent an invasion of Russian borders and that there would be no mobilization. But the rationale(s) continue to evolve on a daily basis. Hardline nationalists had been demanding Putin institute a draft for months, and their calls to go full ham have only grown louder, more public and more vitriolic as loses mount.
In last few weeks, pro-Russia social media and forums have been pushing the narrative that NATO forces (by which they mean the US) are secretly fighting in Ukraine, and publicly denying it on the international stage. While this is 100% false and ridiculous to a US audience, it's plausible to Russians who watched Putin's "Little Green Men" invade Crimea and the Donbas in 2014.
NOTE: Putin's "Little Green Men" wore Russian uniforms with no identifiable insignia on the shoulders and chest. When then-US President Barack Obama confronted Putin about intelligence and media reports that showed Russian forces crossing into Ukraine, Putin called them separatists and feigned ignorance.
Putin's mobilization speech was to come last Monday evening, but the Kremlin pushed it to the following morning, perplexing many. The Kremlin's chief mouthpiece, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dimitry Peskov, was strangely quiet as rumors of a draft spread like wildfire on social media.
When Putin finally made his televised address, he staged it in his office rather than making a grand entrance in some elegant room, like the Hall of St. Vladimir or the Hall of Alexander. It was similar to his announcement of the invasion, but it was...off.
As a photojournalist, the whole thing struck me as strangely amateurish. Putin is rather media savvy and has spent 20 years making himself a cult of personality that is larger than life. But the announcement suffered from poor lighting and bad framing. It begs the question of how hastily the shoot was arranged.
The shot was very tight and close, with the camera seemingly positioned on the far corner of a desk, Putin leans forward as though he's watching himself in a monitor and trying to stay within frame.
There are now large traffic pile-ups on Russian borders visible on Google Maps. While traffic at many (or any) border crossing is normal, the number of men fleeing to neighboring countries is staggering.
This has posed a conundrum for the EU. Legally, the Russians fleeing the country could be considered political dissidents and refugees as they're fleeing military call-ups for a war considered illegal by the international community. But every country is entitled to its laws regarding immigration and security. Kazakhstan and Georgia are welcoming Russians. Germany and France see it as begrudging sense of duty to protect the politically disenfranchised. Baltic nations, Poland and Finland, however, want nothing to do with fleeing Russians, seeing them as appeasers and a potential security risk, arguing the Russians should stay in Russia and fight Putin's regime.
During a meeting with Putin earlier today, Belarusian strongman, Viktor Lukashenko, said it didn't matter how many thousands were fleeing.
NOTE: Lukashenko, who has remained in power for almost 30 years, and has been called being “Europe’s last dictator.” Luka, as some call him, was almost deposed in 2020 following national elections that saw Luka arresting opposition figures. After months of widespread protests, Luka declared an electoral victory with 80% of the vote despite widespread allegations and evidence of voter fraud. Protests stretched on for months, Russian mercenaries were discovered, people were slaughtered in the streets and thousands were rounded up, imprisoned, and remain there today. His opponent in the election, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, lives in exile.
Here, I’m watching things — they’re bruiting mobilization, and some people have fled across the border. But listen, Russia has 25 million [people] of mobilization resources. Alright, 30,000 have already fled, maybe 50,000. And if they had remained? Would they support us? Let them run. I don’t know how you feel about this, but I didn’t especially worry in 2020, when several thousand left. - President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko
Beyond some shitposts and memes, videos have begun surfacing online of the mobilization chaos. The most shared are of drunks, idiots and people attempting to injure themselves to avoid the draft, but there are also videos of people firebombing recruitment centers. Earlier today, a recruitment officer was shot by a man who was angry his friend was served a draft notice despite having no prior military service. Rumors that Russia will attempt to close its borders have prompted an even more desperate scramble.
NOTE: While there is a fair bit of dark humor in some of these videos, they're also newsworthy because they show part of the story. That these videos are surfacing at all is notable due to the Russian government's control on free speech and independent reporting. It's important to acknowledge they can further culturally offensive stereotypes of Slavic people that have led to biases, prejudices and conflicts for centuries.
ONE MORE THING...
There may not be a Friday edition because I'm currently in Florida covering political campaigns. There's a large storm barging into the Gulf of Mexico that NOAA labeled a hurricane early this morning (right around the time I sat down to start this edition of The Smoke Eater -- Yes, it can take that long).
OK, here's your cute critter video!
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